AbuBakar Siddiq

AbuBakar Siddiq

08-04-2022

11:13

The Preview: GW32 - A thread Greetings everyone, welcome to my latest preview thread where I cover GW32 at length: #FPL #FPLCommunity @OfficialFPL Feel free to like and share if you find it to be helpful ❤️

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Q: What to do with Tierney? Who are the best replacements? Personally, I would look to sell Tierney for a premium defender rather than downgrade him to a Newcastle/Arsenal defender. I believe that owning at least four of Doherty, Cancelo, James, Trent and Robertson is the...

... way to go in the coming weeks. People tend to under-estimate the impact of explosive defenders in FPL. One clean sheet and an attacking return more or less is equal to a brace from a striker which are rare especially with the forward options we have this season. We saw the...

... impact that James made in GW28 against Burnley – a performance like that can help you make up ground in no time. Doherty and James in particular are good buys this week. (read below)

xGi per 90 (Since Conte took over) Reguilon 0.51 Trent 0.47 Doherty 0.4 Chilwell 0.36 James 0.33 Robertson/Cancelo 0.31 Conte's wingbacks are cheat codes. Spurs don't double anytime soon but I believe that their fixtures are favorable so the likes of Doherty should do well

There is no doubt about James’ potential – the fact that he is only behind Alexander-Arnold among defenders when it comes to xGi per 90 this season should tell you about his explosiveness. He has already registered three FPL scores of 18 points or more this season, and has...

... every chance of adding to that tally with some enticing fixtures coming up. Initially, I had this game against Southampton written down as a possible hotspot for rotation but Chelsea's loss to Madrid and Tuchel's post match interview makes me think otherwise. Chelsea have...

... now lost back to back games and need a win to gain some confidence going into the crucial decider against Madrid. Here's what Tuchel had to say in his post match interview after the game against Madrid in midweek: "I worry more about Southampton than...

... I worry about Real Madrid in the next week. There is my focus. Today, is this alive? No. With this performance. First of all, we need to play Southampton and if we don’t get our heads straight and mentality right we will not win in Southampton."

Chelsea have a slight chance of having a double Gameweek in 34 as well should they lose in the Champions League and progress in the FA Cup which makes James a good long term buy.

Q: Is it worth selling Salah for Bruno and then Bruno back to Salah after two GWs? I run you through the pros and cons of making that move: Pros: *More appealing to those who either are on Wildcard this week or have one left *Bruno has a ownership of 0.45% in the top10k...

... so high reward if it pays off *Bruno has a great record against Everton historically, against whom he has six attacking returns in his previous four starts *You can argue that he is possibly the best captaincy option in Gameweek 33 as well, when Man United welcome Norwich (H)

*Bruno can possibly double in Gameweek 34 as well assuming that Chelsea lose in the Champions League and progress in the FA Cup which could give Man United a double in 34 *Bruno’s underlying numbers have improved significantly since United have switched to a 4-2-3-1. He has...

... a xGi of 0.8 per game in his new role as compared to a xGi of 0.5 per game earlier in the season. It is no coincidence that the change in formation has coincided with an exponential increase in FPL points per game for Bruno from 4.3 to 6.2 as well.

Cons: *Salah can score against anyone and that move can heavily backfire without a WC as it essentially involves two transfers *High risk as Salah’s ownership is huge *Salah has better odds to score than Bruno even this GW

*Even though Everton at home appears to be a good fixture, Everton have conceded just thrice in six games under Lampard so far *Salah has Everton at home in 34 so in case Bruno doesn’t double, Salah is a must own *There is hardly any difference in Salah’s underlying numbers...

... from the 1st half of the season to the 2nd half even if his output may suggest otherwise *Even if you look at his data after AFCON, he has been the most underperforming player in the league when it comes to non-penalty xGi *Salah is on penalties, Bruno may/may not be

Q: Who is the best captaincy option this week? I prefer a Spurs captain this week. As someone who studies underlying data religiously, one thing I've noticed recently is the disparity between Villa's home and away numbers under Gerrard. Since he has taken over, Villa are...

... ranked third for xG conceded away from home but at home they tend to be more open and expansive - which is why they are ranked 13th for the same metric at home under him. This should play into the hands of Spurs. What I also like is the fact that over a sample size...

... of 10 away games under Conte, Spurs are ranked second for big chances and xG per game. So far, they are recording a highly impressive three big chances per away game and an xG of over two per away game under the Italian which speaks volumes of their progression under him...

... Form is on their side too having scored at least two goals in each of their previous five games.

Q: What is the best time to wildcard? Even though theoretically wildcarding now will give you more time to benefit from it, I would Wildcard in GW34 if given the choice: *It’s easy to set up for 32 + 33 with a template team given how fixtures have panned out – no great need...

... to Wildcard at the moment *Wildcarding in 34 allows you to get on Man City, Villa, Leicester, Palace and to focus transfers on players from teams with something to play for. More upside to Wildcarding then (read below)

*Wildcarding in 34 means that you can easily sell your Burnley, Newcastle and Man United assets *For those FPL managers with a Bench Boost intact, a Wildcard in 34 would set you up for the big double in 36 *If Chelsea go out vs Real Madrid in the Champions League and progress...

... in the FA Cup, Chelsea and Man United could double in 34 so you could attack double GW34 by loading up on Chelsea and United

Q: When is the best time to Free Hit? Since this whole debate is team dependent and without looking at your team, it’s very hard to me to suggest which strategy is likely to fit your team the best, I will run you through the arguments of Free Hitting in each of the double GWs:

Arguments to Free Hit in 33: *A lot of FPL managers have triple Spurs and Liverpool. Both teams have a double in 36 instead *Chelsea, Leicester, Everton and Villa are four teams all likely to double in 36 and 37 which makes those GWs easier to plan for and navigate at once

*If you have quite a few Leeds, Villa, Wolves players in your squads this strategy is likely to be more profitable since all of those teams are blanking in 33. For example, if you own Coutinho, you can keep him from now for his run from GW34 to 37 despite his blank in 33

*You can buy Ronaldo and Fernandes easily on a Free Hit for 33 – two players you would not want necessarily for the long run. This is for me one of the biggest upsides for Free Hitting in that week since you wouldn’t spend transfers bringing them in and taking them out later

*Free Hitting here allows you to spend your transfers on Chelsea and City rather than focus on Burnley, Newcastle, Leicester and Man United assets *FH in 36 gives you one less transfer and you would want to retain the core of your FH36 into 37

*Most will own Villa for their good run from 35 and have Weghorst who doubles in 37 already *GW37 has good fixtures for popular teams: Liverpool face Saints, City play West Ham and Spurs play Burnley

Arguments to Free Hit in 36/37: *Popular assets like triple Arsenal, Dubravka, Weghorst and Broja already have a double in 33 so most teams are already well set *Kane to Ronaldo is another move you could make at a similar price point before Ronaldo’s double in 33

*Most managers have Salah, Trent and Robertson who are perfectly playable in their fixture against MUN at home in 33 and have the capability to haul big in any fixture. You would back them over players from Newcastle/Leicester etc even if they have a double

*Similarly, Spurs have Brighton at home in 33 *We don’t know whether City will double in 36/37 so we will have more information later *Spurs have poor fixtures (liv, ARS) in double GW36 but good fixtures around it so you can FH your Spurs players out

*We will know which teams will have something to play for and which will be on the beach *If Liverpool beat Man City in the FA cup semi, then City and Wolves will double in 37. A City double in 37 could make Free Hit big

*There is a chance United double in GW34, in which case you’d want their assets not only for GW33 but also for GW34

Q: Should a transfer be saved this week? If you don’t have any pressing issues to deal with, saving a transfer is probably the right thing to do as there is a possibility that Chelsea’s and Man United’s potential double GW34 is announced before the GW33 deadline. In that...

... case, having two free transfers will give you a lot of flexibility to attack the upcoming double. However, if you're 50/50 on when to Free Hit, I'd suggest using your free transfer this week to make a long-term move. If you end up Free Hitting in 33, you will lose the...

... transfer you save this week as it won't carry forward to GW34!

Q: What to do with Weghorst? If you (unfortunately) own Weghorst now, you should accept that he will be in your team until GW33 at the very least. You’ve made your bed, now you have to lie in it! Even though his statistics are abysmal, I expect him to start this week as...

... he compliments Rodriguez well and hardly any team in the division is as obliging to strikers as Norwich. Dyche will see this as a must win game and hopefully Weghorst can get a piece of the pie this time.

Here is my Fantasy5 team! I’ve already explained why James and Doherty are such strong options heading into GW32. Odegaard and Barnes need a goal and a clean sheet to beat their targets and are the most likely to do so in their games respectively.

Kindly like and retweet the thread if you can! Also do share your feedback if possible. If you would like to show your support, then follow me on Instagram too! 👇🏻 THANK YOU!



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