Mostly Borrowed Ideas

Mostly Borrowed Ideas



1/ Thread: $META/ $FB MS Conference Notes Dave Wehner, for a change, sounds a bit positive. Nothing too dramatic, but perhaps a bit more clarity on their outlook and what needs to happen to see incremental positive changes. Here's my notes.

2/ "By 2H of the year, we'll be lapping the Apple ATP changes...we expect to continue to improve the targeting and measurement in the new environment. And then longer term, on the advertising front, we see an opportunity to utilize more AI and ML to optimize ads using less data."

3/ Russia is 1.5% of advertising revenue. However, more broadly, Europe is experiencing some softness on the advertiser side (not on users). Not sure whether this is temporary or will persist.

4/ "our click-to-messaging ads, we already have a multibillion-dollar ads business that's growing at healthy double-digit growth rates."

5/ "I think there was some misunderstanding that the magnitude of the headwind outlook has changed substantially. It really hadn't."

6/ Reels growing faster than Stories at a comparable time in 2018 "while it's a headwind for impression and revenue growth as we ramp in 2022,'s going to be a tailwind. We're now pulling time away from other services, but adding to overall engagement. It's incremental"

7/ Anecdotally, I have posted my first reels on IG recently. While posting, it asked whether I want it to be recommended on FB as well. I picked Yes, and views were 4x higher than I typically see on Stories.

8/ "in places like the US, the stories format is monetizing much closer to parity" "it's certainly much better for us if short form as video is dominant versus long form. It just works better with our advertising model."

9/ "The bulk of that investment on the OpEx and total expense sides going to Family of Apps. And virtually, all the CapEx is going to Family of Apps."

10/ Why expense is growing faster: "There's 2 big factors. There's people, and there's capital investment in our data center and that flows through to depreciation. In 2022, we're accelerating headcount growth, and that's going to be the biggest contributor of expense growth."

11/ "to the extent that we can drive good results with these investments, we'll be pushing them harder. And to the extent that we're less successful on those, we can moderate them over time."

12/ "the core Family of Apps business will provide adequate capital to fund those investments and that also allow us to continue to repurchase stock. And we think we can offset the employee dilution but also continue to make anti-dilutive repurchases opportunistically"

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