AbuBakar Siddiq

AbuBakar Siddiq

15-04-2022

09:35

The Preview: GW33 - A thread Greetings everyone, welcome to my latest preview thread where I cover Free Hit and double GW33 at length: #FPL #FPLCommunity @OfficialFPL Feel free to like and share if you find it to be helpful ❤️

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Q: Who are the players and teams to target in GW33? Newcastle and Man United are the two teams I’d like to cover here. Newcastle for me have the standout fixtures this week. I’m a big fan of this Newcastle side - barring that Spurs game where they got obliterated, their...

... stats have improved markedly over the past two months. They should offer points potential at both ends of the pitch. Both their opponents will be coming on the back of their biggest games of the season – with Leicester having European and Palace having FA Cup commitments...

... Even though their attacking numbers haven’t been great, Leicester are leaky while Palace have been poor away from home so chances should be plenty for Newcastle. I prefer Wood over Saint Maximin as I believe that penalties are a big factor considering it’s two games...

... Wood’s numbers aren’t great but he is the best among a bad bunch of forwards at the moment. He has the best xGi among all Newcastle players since Howe has taken over. Defensively, Newcastle have been really solid as well particularly at home where they have conceded four...

... times in their previous six fixtures. Schar and Burn are the ones I like the most – both Palace and in particular Leicester have been susceptible to set pieces this season with Leicester ranked as the side having conceded the highest xG from set plays this season. Burn has...

... the best xG among the Newcastle defenders since Howe has taken over, while Schar is on direct free kicks in the absence of Trippier and has the highest number of goal attempts among all defenders in the league over the past eight GWs. Targett is taking corners which...

... allows him to accumulate bonus quickly and makes him an appealing option as well. All these options are at a bench-able price and also easily playable when Newcastle play Norwich and Burnley in GW34 and 38. Further, the bookmakers have given Newcastle a healthy 55% chance...

... of keeping at least one clean sheet this week. If I were on a Free Hit, I’d pick all three of Ronaldo, Bruno and Telles this week due to the upside of the Norwich fixture alone. United are ranked by the bookmakers as the most likely side to score the most goals this GW...

... Despite the fact that United have very poor attacking statistics in recent weeks, Bruno and Ronaldo are still second and third for non-penalty over the past six matches. Shaw’s injury makes Telles more appealing. He is also on corners which helps him create chances and...

... record bonus more easily should United keep a clean sheet. No team has conceded more set pieces than Norwich this season, which could benefit both Bruno and Telles.

Q: What is my favorite Free Hit GW33 draft? Dubravka Schar Telles Cancelo Martinelli Bruno Son Saka Kane Ronaldo Wood

Q: Who is the best captaincy option this week? Salah, Son and Kane as always remain elite picks this week. Salah is short of form but he’s the kind of player who can go crazy in a fixture. He will have fond memories of playing United earlier in the season. Spurs with so much...

... to play for remain elite picks as well. Since Son, Kane and Kulusevski started playing together, they are ranked first, second and third for FPL points. An argument could be made for selling Salah, Son or Kane to get a United captain but I can completely understand why...

... a lot of FPL managers would be hesitant to make the move. It’s a move I’m torn between myself. Even though the single GW options are great picks this week, getting on a United captain helps you minimize the variance in play against those who are Free Hitting at the same...

... time possibly giving you an additional double GWer for GW34 should Chelsea beat Palace in the Cup (which is given a 76% likelihood by the bookmakers). Salah to Bruno v Kane to Ronaldo is a proper 50/50. Bruno’s underlying numbers have improved significantly since United...

... have switched to a 4-2-3-1. He has a xGi of 0.8 per game in his new role as compared to a xGi of 0.5 per game earlier in the season. However, even in this spell, Ronaldo beats Bruno for minutes per expected goal involvement (141 v 136). Ronaldo has a non-penalty xGi of...

... 9.3 v 8.5 for Bruno since Rangnick took over. Norwich are prone to conceding lots of shots and have the worst xG conceded this season which should bode well for both.

Q: What to do with Leicester’s assets? If you don’t own a Leicester asset, I’d forget about them till GW36 at the very least. Schmeichel is the only one who appeals at the moment if you want to buy a keeper – I don’t rate the Leicester defence that highly but he does have...

... three double GWs coming up and is the most nailed player in the team at the moment. I was scouring through the Leicester forums and a significant majority of the Leicester fans expect Maddison to be benched against Newcastle due to the short turnaround. I expect heavy...

... rotation in GW35 when they face Spurs as well as that game is sandwiched between their Europa Conference fixtures. Barnes’ dip in form has coincided with Lookman’s resurgence which does not bode well for him either.

Q: Should the Free Hit be played this week? Arguments to Free Hit in 33: *It’s a move against the template – high risk, high reward *Chelsea are likely to have a double in 34 and 36 – those weeks are relatively easy to set up for

*Similarly, Leicester, Everton and Villa are three teams all likely to double in 36 and 37 which makes those GWs easier to plan for and navigate at once *If you have quite a few Leeds, Villa, Wolves players in your squads this strategy is likely to be more profitable since...

... all of those teams are blanking in 33. For example, if you own Coutinho, you can keep him from now for his run from GW34 to 37 despite his blank in 33. *You can buy Ronaldo and Fernandes easily on a Free Hit for 33 – two players you would not want necessarily for the...

... long run. This is for me one of the biggest upsides for Free Hitting in that week since you wouldn’t spend transfers bringing them in and taking them out later *Free Hitting here allows you to spend your transfers on Chelsea and City rather than focus on...

... Burnley, Newcastle, Leicester and Man United assets *GW37 has good fixtures for popular teams: Liverpool face Saints, City play West Ham and Spurs play Burnley *A lot of FPL managers have triple Spurs and Liverpool. Both teams have a double in 36 instead

Arguments to Free Hit in 36/37: *United are doubling in GW34 as well, in which case you could own their assets not only for double GW33 but also for double GW34 if you choose not to FH in 33 *Popular picks like triple Arsenal, Dubravka, Weghorst and Broja already have...

... a double in 33 so most teams are already well set *Man United are a tough team to trust and load up on – perhaps one asset is enough without Free Hit *Most managers have Salah, Trent and Robertson who are perfectly playable in their fixture against MUN at home in 33 and...

... have the capability to haul big in any fixture. You would back them over players from Newcastle/Leicester etc even if they have a double *Similarly, Spurs have Brighton at home in 33 *We don’t know whether City will double in 36/37 so we will have more information later

*Spurs have poor fixtures (liv, ARS) in double GW36 but good fixtures around it so you can FH your Spurs players out *We will know which teams will have something to play for and which will be on the beach

*If Liverpool beat Man City in the FA cup semi, then City and Wolves could double in 37. A City double in 37 could make Free Hit big

Q: Who are the single GW options that should not be overlooked this week? How many double GWers are needed? Spurs/City/Liverpool assets remain great picks with so much to fight for. Someone like a Cancelo for example gets a special mention – he’s roughly 50% owned in the...

...top 10k but just the fact that he doesn’t have a double shouldn’t mean that he is overlooked. He is the defender with the highest number of shots playing in the best defence in the league – so he can haul in any fixture even if it’s just a single GW. He should be a priority...

... transfer if you don’t already own him – if there was ever any doubt, he is suspended from the UCL semi and Walker is injured. Brighton have scored just thrice in their previous eight games so chances are that new owners will be rewarded straightaway. It’s important not...

... to overload on too many double GWers for those without a Wildcard – it’s important to recognise that most doublers this week are inconsistent in terms of performances and are not players you’d want in your team for the long term. Quality should prevail over quantity.

Q: What is the best time to wildcard? Even though theoretically wildcarding now will give you more time to benefit from it, I would Wildcard in GW34 if given the choice: *It’s easy to set up for GW33 with a template team given how fixtures have panned out – no great...

... need to Wildcard at the moment *Wildcarding in 34 allows you to attack GW34 by loading up on Chelsea, also allowing you to get on Man City, Villa and Palace at the same time. More upside to Wildcarding then

*Wildcarding in 34 means that you can easily sell your Burnley, Newcastle and Man United assets *For those FPL managers with a Bench Boost intact, a Wildcard in 34 would set you up for the big double in 36

Q: Is Bench Boosting this week worth it? If you have a Wildcard in hand, you can afford to wait for the Bench Boost till GW36 as on the face of it, a Bench Boost with a Wildcard is easier to set up. I would suggest you draft a potential GW36 BB team and compare it to your...

... current BB. Take into account the sacrifices you will have to make in GW34/35 as well to accommodate a heavier bench and see which option makes more sense. However, without a Wildcard, it’s a big risk not to Bench Boost right now if you’re well set up. If you leave the...

... Bench Boost till too late without a Wildcard, you could potentially have to take additional hits to prepare for it which would offset any net gains you make anyway. There’s also the fact that once you get the BB out of the way, you can bring in cheaper players as part...

... of your bench and focus entirely on the starting eleven rather than having funds spread out. However, bear in mind that with the FA Cup fixtures being played this weekend, you could end up with less than 15 starters on your Bench Boost in case any of your City, Liverpool...

... or Chelsea players pick up an injury – this is unlikely to be the case in GW36.

Here is my Fantasy5 team! I’ve already covered Ronaldo and why I fancy him v Norwich. Both Bruno Guimarães and Rice need a goal each to beat their points target so they are the most realistic picks from their respective fixtures.

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