CryptoShadow πŸ‘‘

CryptoShadow πŸ‘‘

20-11-2022

10:47

Last year I dumped all #Crypto at the top 1. Thought we may never go back up again 2. Bearish most of the way down 3. But now? I'm back in buy mode ────── Today I have a thread > full< of alpha for you ────── "How I Dumped The Top & Why I've Started Buying"πŸ‘‡

Before we begin The only sponsorship in these threads is myself Once you finish, if you feel you have received value All I ask is that you follow the giga project I'm building @Metavmonkeys Let's Begin 🎁

Before we take a deep dive - If i'm honest... This thread could be summed up in one tweet. 'RR good. Happy 2 risk. Am buy. Let's m00n' - The bell curve meme is undefeated for a reason. - Buying is just about RR However - if you are not smart enough to be so simple? Continue.

Over the past year in investing I've learned one truth "Principles are more reliable than specifics" Meaning that the reason investors CONSTANTLY miss opportunities That are obvious in hindsight... Is because they don't understand how to weigh information

Instead they get lost in three things - Their opinion - Their love for minutia - Present data (corruptible in future) Not realising principles are timeless Let me simplify this for you

Cutting an apple to shreds does not help you reveal it's an apple. You just need to smell it. The more you look at it under a micro-scope The more likely you are to believe it's something else.

Not only does going straight to the microscope... Mean you're an idiot But this metaphor can be directly translated to the markets And the way we answer important question

In order to nail big markets moves All we need to ask is... "What are the timeless high probability money making principles" And how many are present right now?

These principles by definition should be - Clear so that they can't be confused - Evident they have stood the test of time - And ez ti define so they sidestep subjectivity This is your key to #Crypto trading and investing So let's dive into the four main ones.

Principle 1: Value Is Created Through Sentiment Asymmetry - We buy things when people don't want them. - To sell to them when they do. Is this principle filled here? Yes or no? To what degree?

Principle 2: High RR only looks appealing in hindsight - Statistically most people don't catch exact bottoms - Because greed & fear is inherent at every extreme - Blurring the mind to RR, even when it's high Is this principle fulfilled right now? Yes or no? To what degree?

Principle 3: Good Enough Triumphs Perfection - The need for just a little more ensures most never execute - And most people don't realize they are just a statistic - High probability is king - And high RR is queen - Together they rule Are the king & queen present? Yes or no?

Principle 4: People Only Understand Value Through Price - Bottoms convince everyone - It is a terrible place to buy - Because they don't realize price is just an advertisment Is this present right now? Yes or no?

Now when all 4 are present in high strength? It usually tells me to either > start < buying or selling And right now this is absoultely the case. Let me consolidate this further.

Right now #Crypto functions like a giga option. 1. If it doesn't die from here - you will 50x. 2. If it does, you lose the money you put in. 3. Timeframe: Infinite 4. Control over liquidation: Infinite 5. Time decay: None With a RR so high all you are left with is 1 question

And....it isn't reactive thinking "Omg will contagion make everything smash to 3k" "Omg when will sam go to jail" "Omg but macr00 looks so bad. What if Nasdaq dies" "Omg what about a long bear market" It's......

"Do you think #Crypto has a chance of ATH or at-least retesting 60K within the next 2YR?" - If yes, applying capital here = large multipliers - Even if it is just a hedge My answer is yes. Let's look at why.

The truth about it is... Crypto has done the same thing for 8yr after every dump: go up. - Each time it does, it does so because of a new emerging narrative. - Which usually becomes apparent afterwards So is it truly "different this time?"

Current new unfolding narrative: - Worlds richest man loves meme coins - Crypto integration into social media - ITO'S are the next evolution in fund raising - The Metaverse is in early pregnancy - 2nd Gen NFT'S are on path to change commerce - NFTS are coming to insta & facebook

Alongside this what we already know is: - Blockchain is the technology of the future - Bitcoin compared to trade-fi is still a baby - Blockchain is the tech of the future - Crypto remains in the world financial spotlight - The usecase of DEFI has a place in fighting tyranny

Running parallel to this we are in an enviornment where: 1. Fear is reaching ATH levels 2. People refuse to buy 3. The downside greed is high 4. The #FTX narrative is VERY convincing 5. The obvious contagion is the new 'black swan' Right on q.

This is something I told the entire @Tier7network to watch out for in Q1 In the presence of a low to buy we would need - An emergence of a new explosive narrative: tick. βœ”οΈ - Fear that is divergent from price: tick. βœ”οΈ - A narrative that convinces people not to buy tick. βœ”οΈ

How this is delivered is not my business. I was surprised FTX blew up - yet every cycle surprises. Reasons are unique - but the market mechanism always finds a way to reclaim money from those that don't deserve it. Transcending logic - in favor of law.

The combination of these principles 1. RR 2. Emerging Narrative 3. Sentiment Is enough to be buying at-least something small. If you are smart enough to be simple? Stop here. If not - continue for more alpha.

Now let's look at some chart specifics To see if these principles can be supported By the microscope itself

Right now - here is your master chart. - Save it & don't forget it. - If you share it credit me And please appreciate the fact I'm sharing

When plotting the factors of - Bear market length - Repeating patterns in market structure - Pre halving distance - % dumps They all synthesise to suggest a bottom is being formed. Now or extremely soon.

Before we dissect them - let me clarify something. Alone, these individual points are useless. However WHEN they point in the same direction? They become significant.

First: Bear Market Length Average: 385 Where we are: 385

Second: Repeating MS Our bear markets always distribute a low They sell off below the low They hang like they're going lower And then just go into only up mode Where we are: Hanging / Mid volatility

Third: Repeating % dumps Average: 85.4% Pattern Continuation: 81.1% Where we are now: 77.34% (13K = 81%) (11K = 84%) (10K = 85.4%)

Fourth: Rally Before Expected Halving Distance Average: 535 Pattern Continuation: 490D Where we are now: 504D We We Are: Close

What these suggest is that, if #Crypto continues: 1. We are within bottom territory 2. A bottom can be expected late Q4 2. This is approximation based on agreeing data 4. The more time continues from now the higher the RR gets 5. The more we wait, the more likely we are shut out

So then... multiple these specifics with core principles for making money And you will understand that focusing on 'muh bearish narrative' is almost comical (for now) At-least where execution is concerned It's almost quite literally like the inverse 100K sentiment

Now - my intentions are to make money So how do I factor this into a buy strategy? Since every week from our current area reduces the probability of getting a solid entry This is my strategy...

Allocate capital at an area that makes sense Reserve 50% for unbearable panic (haven't felt it yet) The combination of: A: We can easily go to 10K B: The longer we wait, the easier we're shut out Qualifies this strategy

My plan has been the same all year. And because Crypto loves - To form a bottom then cuck pump to infinity - Chop so much you think it's going lower - Convince everyone of lower - Reveal bullish narratives in HINDSIGHT I'm not interesting in playing magician

To play devils advocate I understand that the 'macro is diff this time' - But we can easily use $BTC as a stand-alone chart - As it's price behaviour is summation of all external behaviour too - And principles hold power because they transcend subjectivity

This leads me onto my conclusive point - Bearish narratives are loudest at the lows - And can't be heard at the highs In order to hear properly, you need to execute through logic As it is fairly devoid of the perception altering emotions And cures reitcular focus

The reasons why the majority are always shut out 1. Is because they believe price = value 2. They try too be too smart and get nothing 3. And they forget RR is all we need

Investor behaviour when we dump 'What about news, what about tokenomics at 1M market-cap :O' Investor behaviour when we pump 'Lol obv m00n who cares about 500m mcap tokenomics' Think about that one

We can absolutely go down another 40% But for a minute just imagine that we enter into only up mode - From here - Where it looks absolutely terrible - As is common with #Crypto And you have absolutely nothing It would sting beyond measure

You were a macro economist for the entire bear market - 1000's of graphs analysed - Tweets written - Projections market - Sitting in huge RR And you did nothing but larp for another 20%

And for the 100th time in your life - You open up Youtube on a Sunday - Lost in your world class analysis To watch @Zzsbeckeri outperform you by aping & slinging mud Again.

The bell cruve meme remains undefeated. Get lost in complication - and lose.

That's a wrap! If you enjoyed this thread... 1. Follow me @CryptoShadowOff for more of these 2. Go check out my project @MetavMonkeys 3. RT the tweet to share this thread with your audience God bless βœ”οΈ



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