Jomini of the West

Jomini of the West



1/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 41: The past 24 hours saw Russian forces continue retreat from the Sumy oblast, although a small portion maintains a token Russian force. Redeployment of units from Kyiv & Sumy to Izium continues. #UkraineWar #RussianUkrainianWar #Ukraine

2/ Humanitarian Impact. Ukrainian refugees near 6 million, with over 6.6 million IDPs throughout Ukraine. The UN Human Rights Office now states Russian forces directly & killed civilians in Bucha. Russian forces continue to block access to Mariupol.

3/ Weather assessment. The Donbas region will experience extended periods of cloud cover and rain during the early part of next week (11-13 Apr). These conditions and varying wind speed will hamper the accuracy of air & artillery strikes for VKS & UAF.

4/ Kharkiv-Donbas Strategic Front. Russian forces continue small-scale offensive action SW of Izium and in the Sievierodonetsk salient. Separatist forces are still attempting to breakthrough Ukrainian defenses along the LOC. Mariupol has yet to fall to Russian forces. #Donbas

5/ Russian force buildup. The Russian military has begun to concentrate redeployed forces from the Sumy & Kyiv-Chernihiv Strategic Fronts to the region between Balakilisk and Izium. These units most likely are the best capable to come from these former fronts.

6/ It is likely these units have probably been filled with cannibalized personnel and equipment from units deemed too damaged to function effectively, though this assessment is highly speculative.

7/ Donets River Line. Russian & Separatist forces have not made any meaningful gains in the Sievierodonetsk Salient for the past several days. Russian forces will undoubtedly advance on Sloviansk, this may not be the main effort of a renewed offensive.

8/ Russian forces may instead advance further to the west and south to create a large cauldron to be reduced by artillery and air strikes. Given the high losses sustained by Russian forces throughout the UTW, these seems like the logical operational approach.

9/ Aerospace Assessment. VKS continues to steadily increase air sorties in east and south Ukraine. Priority of missions seem to be in Mariupol & in the Sievierodonetsk Salient. Pressure is maintained against Kharkiv through air & artillery strikes.

10/ Battle Damage Assessment. New Russian losses include 2x MBTs destroyed (1x T-72B, 1x unknown), 28x BMP IFVs (21x destroyed, 6x captured, 1x abandoned), 1x KA-52 AH & 1x Orlan-10 UAV shot down, 2x KamAZ trucks & 7x other types destroyed.

11/ Information Advantage. President Zelensky delivered a powerful message to the UN Security Council today. However, there is a risk that continued brow beating of international leaders, especially from Europe, may work against attempts to secure aid.

12/ Zelensky’s frustration is completely understandable. Without substantial and expanded military assistance, Ukraine will not be able to defeat Russia. Without humanitarian and financial assistance Ukraine will take decades to recover.

13/ Ukraine needs assistance like the Czech Republic may provide. The West cannot allow itself to be paralyzed in fear of what Russia might do if it provides more substantive lethal aid. If the West does not Ukraine will struggle in the long term to win.

14/ These maps have been created by me based off the most reliable information of activity in the Ukrainian Theater of War from a variety of sources. Errors will be corrected as soon as they are identified.

15/ Information regarding Ukrainian units are meant to be general, are based on Ukrainian General Staff statements and social media posts, official Ukrainian government press releases, and local news. It does not depict current unit movements.

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