AbuBakar Siddiq

AbuBakar Siddiq

17-10-2022

13:16

The Preview: GW12 – A thread Greetings everyone. Welcome to my latest preview thread where I address the most common FPL dilemmas before GW12: Feel free to like and share if you find it to be helpful ❤️

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Q) De Bruyne to Salah worth a hit? Salah should be a priority transfer for every FPL manager who doesn’t own him this week. He’s the standout captain in GW12 which should be enough to justify a transfer from De Bruyne – even for a hit. I wouldn’t think twice about...

... losing De Bruyne – I think Foden is the best midfielder to own from Man City in terms of the value that he offers. He has almost double the number of shots in the box and big chances than De Bruyne this season with the difference in expected goal involvement (xGi) not...

... significant enough to justify the extra £4m. With Haaland almost always frontrunner for the captaincy after GW12, getting Foden/Saka, spreading the cash and strengthening the overall squad should be the strategy to max out on Man City’s and Arsenal’s fixtures.

Q) Maddison to Mount/Trossard/Sterling worth a hit if fielding 10? Which one is better? 'The new manager said I needed to score more. He wants me closer to goal. City score a lot because they create so many. This manager wants us to get to that point." Sell Maddison - Get...

... an extra player for GW12 by backing Trossard v Forest before moving him onto Foden/Saka in GW13. The additional player this week effectively only needs to get one return to breakeven so it is a low risk move – look at it as a negative two rather than a negative four...

... According to his own quotes, Trossard has been given more of a direct role by De Zerbi as opposed to Potter which should be the music to the ears of every Fantasy manager. Mount and Sterling are good placeholders for this position too – but to be honest, I don’t...

... trust Potter as he is very random with his team selections. Sterling has the better stats in terms of minutes per xG than Mount so would be my pick if you can afford to go there, but then again it depends on what you can afford to do with the extra cash by selecting...

... Mount. Mount has started all fixtures, both in the PL and UCL, under Potter this season so seems to be fairly nailed but you never know given Potter’s history to rotate. Both Mount and Trossard have played three league games under their new managers...

... In this span, their xGi & underlying data is almost identical. I prefer Trossard as he is playing closer to goal and has more of a goal threat. He also has the better odds to score & the home fixture plus little risk of rotation. Adam Lallana is set to start...

... this fixture, but most Brighton fans believe that it will be at the expense of Gross or even MacAllister. If you already own Trossard, then I would go Zaha – the fixtures are still good and despite the recent run of blanks, he still remains a solid pick.

Q) Who is the best James replacement? If you still have James, then I think both Trent/Robertson are great differentials to go with if you can afford to go there. Trent/Robertson are exactly the kind of high upside differentials you want with just five GWs left till the...

... World Cup. Both of them have such a high ceiling if they get going. WHM nfo LEE SOU are four of the next five fixtures before the World Cup. I believe that points in the league at the moment are more important – Liverpool are relatively safe in the UCL, so that is...

... the time to rotate and not in the league. The Sunday-Wednesday-Saturday turnaround this week is a bit of a worry though. If you want to go cheaper, then I would go for Palace/Brighton.

Q) Who is the best Palace and Brighton defender? Is a Palace defender better than a Brighton one? I prefer a Palace defender over a Brighton one. Even though Brighton have the better odds for a clean sheet this week, Palace have a good fixture not only this week but are...

...playable in most weeks all the way up till the World Cup whereas Brighton have a rough run – especially in GW13 and 14 where they face Man City and Chelsea. If you’re buying a Palace defender, Guehi is the one. Guehi had the better attacking stats last season...

... but Andersen is faring better this season. Bonus accumulation rate is more or less the same for both. Don't think it's enough to spend £0.2m extra on Andersen as over a larger sample size, both have relatively the same goal threat and bonus accumulation.

If you’re buying a Brighton defender, Dunk is the one. Dunk is better for bonus and historically better for goal threat than Webster, even though Webster is doing slightly better in terms of goal threat this season.

Q) Sell Kane to fund Salah? Kane has been super consistent this week but most FPL managers who own Kane this week find themselves asking this question. Kane hasn’t blanked from GW2 so selling him seems crazy on paper. In my opinion, historical points shouldn’t...

... matter though – we should always look ahead. I do think that Salah will outscore Kane in the coming weeks and offer more of a realistic captaincy option. I’d sell if you don’t have any other route– albeit reluctantly.

Q) Is it worth buying Solanke? I think the ship to buy Solanke has sailed. He has a favourable fixture this week but after this week, the fixtures aren’t great. Here is a list of Solanke’s hauls this season:

GW6: 12 pts. 1 shot in the box, 1 chance created, xGi 0.2 GW10: 8 pts. 1 shot in the box, 1 chance created, xGi 0.3 GW11: 12 pts. 2 shots in the box, 1 chance created, xGi 0.4 That is six attacking returns from a xGi of less than 1... insane level of overperformance!

Fair to say us Solanke owners have had our fair share of luck.

Q) Is it worth Free Hitting if the squad is decimated with injuries/suspensions? I don’t think Free Hitting should be an option this week. Free Hitting will be more useful later in the season because blanks will be caused by the FA Cup Quarters and Semis. Those blanks...

... and doubles later on will be super difficult to negotiate later on without a Free Hit. Also, players like Maddison aren’t optimal from GW13 anyway even when they return so it’s better to make long term moves and sell them through transfers rather than Free Hit.

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That brings me to the end of my thread. Kindly like and retweet it if you can! Also do share your feedback if possible. THANK YOU! ❤️



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