AbuBakar Siddiq

AbuBakar Siddiq

17-03-2022

13:11

The Preview: GW30 - A thread Greetings everyone, welcome to my latest preview thread where I cover blank GW30 at length: #FPL #FPLCommunity @OfficialFPL Feel free to like and share if you find it to be helpful ❤️

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Q: How many players in GW30 is enough? Is it worth Free Hitting in GW30? This is one of the weeks where around eight or so starters should be enough. I say that because I expect this GW to be low scoring – most assets have a low ceiling while a significant majority of...

... managers have already loaded up on triple Arsenal and Spurs so there is less upside to Free Hitting in 30. Save the chip for later if possible. However, if you have barely anyone playing, then Free Hitting makes far more sense as a decent points gain is virtually guaranteed.

Q: Why is saving a transfer this week a good idea even if you don’t have a full starting 11? Saving a transfer this week is a sound strategy for most. I would suggest not making a transfer just for the sake of getting an additional player this week. Two free transfers could...

... prove to be very powerful heading into GW31 helping in additional flexibility post-GW30 to plan for the upcoming double GWs. Generally, I would only be looking to use my free transfer in the following situations: (read below)

*If I didn’t own Kane, I would get him as I believe he is the best captain in GW30 *If I did not own triple Arsenal, I would get in more Arsenal players as they are likely to double in 33 too *If I was wildcarding in 31, I would take a punt on the likes of Toney or Barnes

Q: Is it worth selling Son to buy Kane? How does Son compare to Kulusevski? Big chance involvements over the past 8 matches: Kane 15 Salah 11 Bruno 10 Ronaldo 9 Son/Mane 8 Kane is simply operating in another stratosphere at the moment and as you can see has...

... almost double the number of big chance involvements than Son over the previous eight matches. Here is how he compares to Son since Conte has taken over: Kane v Son (since Conte has taken over) Mins per big chance involvement: 53 v 76 Mins per xGi: 105 v 154

Not only this, Kane is actually first in the league for non penalty xGi since the Italian has taken over! This goes in line with Conte’s comments on using Kane much closer to goal, as opposed to his previous managers. Kane is also by far the most likely goal scorer according...

... to the odds this week, with the bookmakers giving him a 60% chance of scoring. This is why I think that if you own Son and have no route to Kane, you should consider the move to Kane as Kane is the standout player for the captaincy this week. Kulusevski has won his...

... shirt for at least the short term, with six attacking returns in his five previous starts. What I like about him is that he’s extremely cheap and allows for significant upgrades in your squad elsewhere. In the six matches they have started together, Son has just one...

... additional big chance involvement as compared to Kulusevski which is why I don’t think the difference between them is big enough to justify the extra ∼£5m in price. In fact, Son's fantasy goal involvement has dropped from 56% to 27% since Kulusevski has started playing...

... It’s also worth noting that Son has been subbed four times in the previous five matches with Conte giving Kulusevski more time on the pitch later on in games. I can understand that a transfer from Son to Kulusevski feels sideways. Results may not go immediately in your...

... favor but anyone who owned the Kulusveski + Kane combo over Son + another forward has done well over the past few weeks and I expect that trend to continue.

Q: When to Free Hit if not Free Hitting in GW30? After the double GW announcement, which GW looks best to Free Hit out of 33 and 36? Since this whole debate is very team dependent and without looking at your team, it’s very hard to me to suggest which strategy is likely...

... to fit your team the best, I will run you through the arguments of Free Hitting in each of the double GWs: Arguments for Free Hit in 33/not Free Hitting in 36: *A lot of FPL managers have triple Spurs +Liverpool. Both teams are likely to double in 36 instead. (read below)

*Chelsea, Leicester, Everton and Villa are four teams all likely to double in 36 and 37 which makes those GWs easier to plan for and navigate at once *If Man City go out in the cup, it would mean no double for Arsenal and Southampton which would make Free Hit in 33 very...

... appealing as a lot of FPL managers have a significant coverage of Arsenal + Southampton in our squads. It would mean we would want triple City for their double in 33 *If you have quite a few Leeds, Villa, Wolves players in your squads this strategy is likely to...

... be more profitable since all of those teams are likely to blank in 33 *You can buy Ronaldo and Fernandes easily on a Free Hit for 33 – two players you would not want necessarily for the long run. This is for me one of the biggest upsides for Free Hitting in that week...

... since you wouldn’t spend transfers bringing them in and taking them out later Arguments for Free Hit in 36/not Free Hitting in 33: *Assuming that the favourites win in the FA Cup, popular assets like triple Arsenal, Dubravka, Broja will already have a double in 33

*Jimenez to Weghorst (Yes!) could be another popular move in 31. It can set you up for Burnley’s two upcoming doubles in 31 and 33, at the same time taking advantage of their Norwich fixture in 32. *Kane to Ronaldo is another move you could make at a similar price point...

... before Ronaldo’s double in 33 *Most managers have Salah, Trent and Robertson who are perfectly playable in their fixture against MUN at home in 33 and have the capability to haul big in any fixture. You would back them over players from Newcastle/Leicester etc even...

... if they have a double *Similarly, Spurs have Brighton at home in 33 *If City go out in the cup, you can simply hit their players in as they have great fixtures from 33 till the end of the season so Free Hitting in 33 may not necessarily be the go-to choice.

Q: When to Wildcard for those with a Wildcard in hand? Again this is team dependent but I think GW33 should be relatively easy to navigate without a Wildcard if the favorites progress. Assuming they do, you can Wildcard after GW33 and possibly set yourself up...

... for a Bench Boost in GW36 or 37 depending on your Free Hit strategy. Q: What is the ideal Free Hit team for someone Free Hitting in GW30? Ramsdale Coady Doherty Reguilon Saka Coutinho Raphinha Barnes Toney Kane Jimenez

Q: What to do with Lucas Digne? Is it worth buying a Leicester defender for him? I would keep Digne this week whether or not he is fit. The temptation behind the Leicester defence is that they have a fixture this week followed by three double GWs to come but we need not...

... forget that this is a Leicester defence which is ranked 19th for xG conceded and 20th for non-penalty xG conceded in home games this season. No team has allowed more big chances than them in the previous 6 home matches too which is why I back Brentford to score this week...

...If you own Digne, you’re better off looking at Reece James as a replacement from GW30 onwards to target Chelsea’s great run of fixtures.

Q: Is it worth selling Salah for Barnes this week to buy him back for Raphinha next week? The logic behind this move is that Leeds are likely to blank in GW33 while Leicester have a double in 33 so essentially it’s a transfer brought forward. However, I don’t like the idea...

... of this as it involves using an additional transfer which could be better used elsewhere this week. Further, the Southampton and Watford games for Leeds in GW31 and 32 are pretty significant. They are games I expect Raphinha to do well in. Saints are arguably the first...

... side to be on the beach this season with back-to-back losses and little to play for. Then there's Watford who are poor. Raphinha has registered an assist from an xGi of 3.3 over the last 4 matches – he has been very unlucky even by his high standards of points dodging.

Q: In this section, I cover Harvey Barnes and Ivan Toney. Firstly, I would like to say that I would only recommend these players to those who are either on a Free Hit or are Wildcarding in 31. Even though I expect both of these players to do well this week, I do not think...

... they are worth bringing in for free transfers. I say that because Barnes has United away in 31 and could be rotated in 32 for the game against Palace which falls in between two Europa fixtures. You could leave that transfer till GW33 and hope that Leicester go out of the...

... Europa league. Similarly with Toney, Brentford don’t have any Double GWs coming up and face the likes of Chelsea, Man United and Spurs in three of their next six GWs – so he’s only good for this week alone. Over the past six GWs, Barnes is top among all Leicester players...

... for shots in the box, expected goal involvement, penalty area touches and big chance involvements. He is clearly in form, having recorded nine returns in his previous 12 matches. I think he is the Leicester midfielder of choice for now. Maddison is coming back from a lower...

... back injury, which is why he has been benched in four of the past seven matches. Barnes is also operating on the flank where Brentford concede the significant majority of their chances so the zonal “match-up” is also in his favour. Toney has scored five goals in his...

... previous two matches with three of them being penalties. This run of form has coincided with Brentford’s switch to a 4-3-3 which is allowing him to get opportunities in more threatening positions. His recent form also means that he is now second among forwards for goals...

... this season. Toney should get plenty of opportunities against a poor Leicester defence which is why the bookmakers have rated him as the second most likely goal scorer behind Kane this week.

Here is my Fantasy5 team! I’ve already spoken about Barnes and his chances of exploiting Brentford’s zonal weakness. Coutinho has a good chance of beating his target of 7.5 as well, as he realistically needs two involvements or a goal and clean sheet to surpass his target!

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