Bijay

Bijay

14-09-2022

14:58

Lets start. This is going to be a long tweet. Please read seriously, your option journey will travel serious distance. We will use 40500CE and BNF chart to get hold of the things.

Below is 1min chart of 40500CE weekly from 9/9/22 onwards. This week started from 9/9/22(Friday). This CE opened at 430 and hit a high of 499 at 10.35 AM. The Corresponding level on BNF on 9/9/22 were BNF opened at 40601 and hit a high of 40753 at 10.38 AM.

Then on 12/9/22 BNF crossed 40753 and hit a high of 40770 at 12.40 PM (see the arrow in chart). At the same time 40500CE hit a intraday high of 458 at 12.40 PM(see the arrow on chart). Means BNF made new high by 20 points while this CE still fell short by 40 points approx.

So we can say that the chances of BNF moving higher is lower, reason being ITM CE is not making new high on Monday. (Forget - THEETA , GAMMA, MEETA----STAY WITH ME)

Now on 13/9, We opened gap up and made a new high of 40915 at 9.46 AM and then again this high was crossed at 2.47 PM at 40977. (Arrow dekho). At same time , this CE made a high of 517 at 9.45 AM and then new high of 545 at 2.47 PM.

Now go back to 9/9, this CE made a high of 500 when BNF was at 40753 and now when BNF is at on 13/9 40977 this CE is at 545 only. So from Friday to Tuesday with a upmove of 200++ points this CE is hardly up 40 points and there is no tendency to run upward. Very dicey

This type of option behaviour is a sign of congestion and it was telling us on Tuesday that a small pull back or congestion might happen before this expiry. Now you will say that I am saying all this in hindsight. Let me show you few of my mentorship group messages of ydy.

Sorry for posting these, but u need to see what screen was telling in live market.

Now let us see what 41000PE was telling us ydy. This PE started the day at 560 and ended the day at 360. With literally NO BIG ADDITION IN OI DURING THE DAY. So ydy 40500CE was not rising nor the OI was running and 41000PE was not falling nor big OI was getting written.

So all things were pointing to a congested Wednesday with small negative bias. Now after reading so many above tweets, we know that 500-545 was a big zone for this 40500CE. Sahi hai ??? and we have seen on Tuesday there was no aggressive writing in 41000PE also. Based on last

few days price action, we can conclude that Smart money was preparing for this weekly expiry around 41000 levels (40500+500 = 41000). Clear hai ?? Now what will happen if their plan fails and we know if 40500CE starts to trade above 500++ levels today then a big move may happen.

Lets start connecting today dots . Today this CE opened at 190 and rose to 460 at 9.49 AM, the CE started with OI of 11 lk and was increasing OI 21 LK with increase in prices till 9.49 AM. Then it became congested for next 1 hr.

See at 11.04 AM , this CE crossed 500 and then at 11.05 AM there is a gap in this CE from 545 to 553. See the ROIT in these CE sellers. So we know the importance of 500-545 zone . Sahi ki Nai ?? Can you predict this ?? Yes you can

Now how you trade depends on your risk profile. For person like me who is reluctant buyer, I prefer the trade through NEXT WEEK OPTION ON TUESDAY. Rest you can see in this screenshot, what happened.

We talked about 40500CE till now, what above 41000PE ?? As both of these together were giving a view of 41000 for this expiry. Lets see. Just notice whats happening at 11.04 AM candle. OI shooting up and gap down in candle . Its still ITM PE buddy .

So both your CE and PE giving the same sense. IF you cant catch it, cant help it. Now lets go to morning at 9.15 AM. Chale wapas ??? We opened at 40250, gap down of 650 points +++. If BNF is planned for a panick day, then there will be serious writing in ITM CE at start and

unwinding in OTM PE , we can see from first tick there was no writing in 40000CE while 40000PE was seeing aggressive writing. In 40500CE no major writing after first 5 mins while in 40500PE (ITM PE) people are writing aggressively. Remember this is a gap down day of 600 points

with DOW down 1200 points overnight and people writing ITM PE from first tick ?? At 9.15 AM or even at 10.00 AM , no one can predict that we will cover 600 points gap down and close 500 points up, but based on data & CE charts, you can say that we will not fall to opening low.

After that it completely becomes the game of patience on how you play & how far you can play. Tried my best to explain full weak analysis with Congestion & Price breakout based on one option chart. Still I know,few people will take the screenshot & say "data ye bola woh bolo""

Choice is yours whether you join the gang & make fun of yourself or give a serious thought on learning. In between forgot to tell when I exited my long and short options. You can connect with me in below telegram channel

Chalo Jai Shri Ram and phir milte hai



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