1/ # Speculation This thread is going to cover the most important thing you need to understand about this crypto game. Speculation on the unknown.

2/ You won't make money in crypto by finding the best project, reading technical crap, trying to figure out how blockchain technology will be used in the future, or which projects are going to be integrated into the global financial system.

3/ You'll do it by identifying things which you can buy, which will then get a price increase through speculation happening on it in the near term. People buying because they think its going to go up in price.

4/ To explain this i'm going to use the analogy of boxes of gems.

5/ Suppose crypto tokens are boxes containing rare gems. You are a trader who buys these boxes and then tries to sell them for more than you paid, and through that make money.

6/Suppose there is one legit box of gems, with its contents transparent is worth 10K USD and you know the gems value increases at 5% per year. You are not going to buy it for 100K and sell it a short time later for 10x your money. Why?

7/ Because nobody would buy it from you for that amount because they roughly know and can see that the REAL value is at most 5% more than you paid a short time ago.

8/ If a box is a really expensive one - $100K and increases in value at 5% per year, you still are not going to buy it and then soon after sell it for 10x your money for the same reason.

9/ In this game you do not make money by finding an expensive box, you do it by finding a box you can sell for a lot more than you paid.

10/ How do you do that? You do it by finding a box to buy whos true value or potential future value isn't known or clear and is therefore speculated on, causing a price increase.

11/ So in walks a guy with a box.. it isn't transparent. Theres a verified note on it saying it contains gems along with some other info, but you don't know how much or the exact type. He has a receipt for how much he paid for it - $15K .

12/ The box was made and filled by a guy who's known for putting boxes on the market that sell for large sums.

13/ Perhaps online you read fan forums of how this particular production line of boxes is supposedly going to be worth a fortune in the future because the gems inside it, while unknown, are rumored to be crucial in next generation smartphone camera production.

14/ You buy it from him for $20K, and then sell it for $80K. That box could be worth $200K, or it could be worth $5K, or in some risky scenarios where you couldn't even see the gems at all - worth nothing.

15/ This is the game you are playing. You are not looking for a good project. You are looking for one which you can buy, and then sell for more due to either buying it undervalued or by speculation happening on it through people shilling dream case price scenarios and bullshit.

16/ So many people still don't understand this. They screw up because they buy a 'great project' for a value that is the same as its current transparent value, or whos future is boring or clear/legit, without shilling, exaggeration or fantasy dream case scenarios being pushed.

17/ Sometimes its worse, they buy a 'great project' at a price that already has its future speculative value priced in. Like paying $100 for a gem worth $70, because in 2 years it will be $100. Yes its increasing in value, but that won't help you because you paid too much for it.

18/ Buying a project because NIKE is involved doesn't mean you are going to get rich. Chances are you just bought a token that was overpriced.

19/ It is in the unknown where the money is made in crypto because shillers fill those unknowns with unlikely best-case-scenarios to a market of buyers who are dumb and greedy, who don't do their homework, and who will believe it. Thats why prices go up. Speculation on unknowns.

20/ Stop thinking the answer is in looking for expensive boxes of gems. Stop thinking the answer to making money is in a Phd in Geology and gem science. The way to make money in this market is to understand speculation and bullshit.

21/ Its in finding something that you have enough info on to know that you are buying undervalued, but one with enough unknowns and bullshit and speculation to have an upside that leads to huge gains.

22/ And in this is how the crypto game dies. The unknowns become knowns. Adoption, Regs and clear metrics on usage and growth. In that era our current gains of 5x, 10x, 50x's are over. Nobody pays more than 100 dollars for an envelope they can see contains 100 dollars.

23/ ...and to the moron 'token fanclub' HODL'r who thinks his token is safe because in the adoption era its value will be far more than today. You don't know it'll be in that future, and you don't know that its metric driven value will be more than the speculative price you paid

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