Adam Cochran (adamscochran.eth)

Adam Cochran (adamscochran.eth)

30-12-2021

20:30

145/206 Multichain Dapps are fine. But appchain dapps are where interoperability needs to go for a capital efficient future. And there is probably no team I have more faith in executing on that than Compound Labs.

146/206 One of the only dapps we've seen structure itself in that way was Luna, and we know how that's turned out.

147/206 There is a huge amount of benefit and flexibility in being able to operate your own chain, and with $COMP being what will underpin validators on their appchain, it's pretty clear why there has been a lot of OTC buying for them.

148/206 I'm kind of hoping the infrastructure they build out on is an Avax subnet, but regardless of how it lands, I think the COMP chain is going to melt faces given how oversold they've been.

149/206 $RARE: This thesis is simple. There are two major auction houses in the classic art world (Sotheby's and Christie's) They are both already aware of the growing market in NFTs and digital goods.

150/206 Sotheby's has been aggressively exploring this world in a way that shows they actually get it. But as the two compete I think one of two things happens.

151/206 Which ever auction house is in the lead of NFT marketshare will buy a marketplace to cement that lead. Or, the one who is lagging behind will buy a marketplace to catch up.

152/206 That acquisition will focus on a native NFT marketplace that most closely resembles the brand, professionalism and user set that classic auction houses have and so I think that will be $RARE.

153/206 I think they either get bought out by, or at least a large stake acquired by one of the classic auction houses. My guess is 2022. But may not land. Just seems inevitable.

154/206 $SNX: Earlier on Frax I commented that you shouldn't undercount relentless builders, or bridge builders. SNX is both. Dramatically oversold.

155/206 This year alone they dramatically increased demand, and the ecosystem is piloting like 5 new products which all use sUSD as a base. It also integrates nicely with FixedForex so I think the KP3R boon helps drive them as well.

156/206 If even one of their ecosystem project, or partners has a breakout year then so does SNX. They've got multiple shots lined up and so this bet is all statistics and confidence in builders.

157/206 $SYN: As I said in my main thesis, bridge infrastructure is critical and revenue matters. Users are willing to pay Synapse because it is the best bridge between L1s and L2s.

158/206 They need to expand their pair offerings, but I made a point to try every bridge this year. Nothing comes close. This is just flat out the bridge we're all going to use.

159/206 $GNO Gnosis is going to be the only viable at scale MEV play from the current offerings. And that leading offering with its own scaling network post xDAI merger is going to be pushed into every Gnosis Multisig.

160/206 Can you think of a project worth its weight in salt that doesn't use Gnosis Multisig? Nope. All the biggest treasuries, best builders, and largest funds, will all have a front row seat to GNO's scaling and MEV prevention.

161/206 Risk-On But Potential: This category is plays that I don't know if the will work out. We're now in the world of a high risk potential for loses if they don't capture the market, but these products all have strong potential.

162/206 For example, we know Perps volume moves on chain. @CMSholdings has been screaming it from the roof tops for ages now! But we don't know who wins the bulk of that market.

163/206 It's likely that a number of players divide up some small crumbs, but 1-2 players blow it out of the water. As a sector, on-chain perps is set to out perform.

164/206 If you can divide your bets across each participant who has potential then the large gains (especially multi-year) from the winner will compensate underperformance. Although its likely a rising tide all ships situation.

165/206 So who is in this category? -$PERP -$FST -$CAP -$MCB -$DPX -$HND -$API3 -$ANGLE

166/206 $PERP: Perp had a strong lead in this space, and DyDx certainly damaged their momentum, but as I said earlier this month, I think there is a clear path to a win for them:

167/206 Perp really needs to execute quickly on being the long tail of the onchain futures but if they can do that with Curie (their v2) then 2022 is a breakout year for them.

168/206 $FST: Futureswap is another key futures play. What I like about them is that they integrate directly with Uniswap V3 positions for capital efficient positions on AMMs. Their pool simplicity could be a key driver for them.

169/206 $CAP This is 100% the underdog in this race and I love it. I was skeptical about them at launch, but the execution from a community driven anon team has been really solid. I don't think they take first place in perps but long upside potential.

170/206 $MCB MCDEX is a tough one for me. I'm 50/50 on it. I feel its the least likely to win first place. But with the upside potential of all perps, and the quality UX investment its still worth betting on incase it does win.

171/206 $DPX: If someone brings options in an accessible, scalable way to mainstream audiences, then it's going to be Dopex. They are simply the best onchain set up and UX for this.

172/206 The Dopex play works nicely in tandem with my Ribbon bet. Ribbon needs Dopex to scale, and Dopex likely needs Ribbon to scale, so there is strong potential here. (Plus you know better than to bet against @tetranode)

173/206 $HND Hundred Finance is probably the earliest stage/riskiest of the assets in this category. It only recently landed on my list and I've not started my shopping here yet.

174/206 But it's a crosschain lending play by @vfat0 that is really early stage. If anyone knows the inner workings of farming tokenomics is vfat and so this is one to watch.

175/206 As the market recovers into the new year I plan to move a lot of capital into farming this and scaling into a position as it grows in liquidity.

176/206 $API3: Another long shot that I think has strong legs. We do need more oracle diversity, and new types of data availability as we move into a multichain and sharded future.

177/206 I think its easy to feel that API3 has likely under delivered, but I think they've been building a strong foundation to a complex problem. So 2022 is a make or break year for them and I think the odds are more towards make given long infrastructure needs.

178/206 $ANGLE: Like I've said with FixedForex, if you're an American you probably don't understand how many painpoints international users face with currency in this marketplace.

179/206 Angle aims to be like a MakerDAO but starting with a decentralized EUR. My hunch is they expand into other currencies and have key partnerships with Convex and KP3R that cement their place.

180/206 The only reason the are this far down the list is they've already had a strong outperform. I think they dramatically outperform multi-year term, but would need key drivers to make it happen in 2022.

181/206 High Risk: These are my 50x or go to 0 plays. If they perform, they out perform. I expect most won't perform. This is for your absolute risk on allocations.

182/206 Who is in the highest risk boom or bust section? -$GEL -$NFTX -$RAMP -$THALES -$PICKLE -$BABL -$PREMIA -$PENDLE

183/206 $GEL: Smart contract automation. I think KP3R and other tech like OpenZepplin Defender gives them a run for their money, but if they can build the right libraries and integrations for any major pick up it'd be a win for them.

184/206 If I were them I'd focus on finding every large user of KP3R or OZ Defender and then going to that protocols competitor and getting them to use Gelato. The enemy of my enemy kind of thing.

185/206 $NFTX: Mainstream NFT adoption is likely to continue to grow. Mainstream won't push up the cap price because they aren't buying $100k pfps. The reason the shift tokens is through fractionalization.

186/206 When 100,000 people can each over pay for one small unit, that's when retail swings prices. NFTX gives that exposure, can basket exposure across projects and can gamify it. If we do see CEX marketplaces cause an NFT boom, NFTX rides it.

187/206 $RAMP: I like cash driven onramps. This is the only one with a viable token. It's boom or bust.

188/206 $THALES: The $SNX play for the options space. Pretty solid product. Not as compelling as Dopex, but also way under priced.

189/206 If Ribbon does boom, then it will indirectly grow all options providers. As it needs to push capital into new markets. With how Thales is priced, its a no brainer for me to get some exposure here.

190/206 $PICKLE: Another spot I've been unable to actually start my shopping due to low liquidity (if you know an OTC let me know) Autostacking liquidity pools, way oversold, part of yearn eco, hasn't got a lot of love recently.

191/206 Still its a useful product and I think as we see more vaults grow, it's got a path to pop because of the low mcap and the ability to generate external revenue.

192/206 $BABL: Infrastructure play. I think some aspects of launch and tokenomics were underwhelming but solvable. Product UX is confusing, but the tech is solid.

193/206 As we move to a more and more retail oriented world, I think wallets/interfaces like Zapper and Argent are going to look for more vault strategy style integrations for their users. Bablyon would it will there.

194/206 $PREMIA: Least interesting of the options plays at this point in time, but still a quality product. Given my strong thesis for Ribbon, it could outperform on the back of Ribbon's growth.

195/206 $PENDLE: I love Pendle. I think it's brilliant. I don't think most users understand what it is even trying to do, let alone how to use it. If Pendle focuses on education and integration into vault strategy products, huge boon.

196/206 I made the mistake of overestimating the general financial acumen of users at their launch so they under performed my expectations. I think there is a clear path to them capturing the growth that their product deserves in '22.

197/206 Possible Farming: This category is protocols that I think are likely worth interacting with due to potential upcoming tokens, but nothing is announced yet.

198/206 No extensive breakdown for these just the names: -Cowswap (confirmed) -Element Finance -Opyn -Cozy Finance -Pods -Volumex

199/206 So there you have it. That's my 2022 outperform and shopping list. It is once again worth reiterating that this is *not* financial advice. You shouldn't just ape into these and expect to win.

200/206 I tend to track assets and maintain a shopping list that I update every 3 months or so. I scale into positions and balance risks at different levels. I'm happy to eat and hold loses long term. This should all at best be a starting point for your own research.

201/206 Overall, I think 2022 will be an exciting year for crypto. A rebirth of classic defi bluechips, exciting new defi models, and a number of technologies starting to cross the chasm.

202/206 There are also a lot of assets not covered in this list that will do well, especially if the overall market does well. These are just my personal bets on what has an *opportunity* to *outperform*.

203/206 As a standard disclaimer, I obviously have financial interest in many/most of these tokens (or all by the time you are reading it) and have my own biases.

204/206 Hopefully you've found this thread to be helpful in terms of guiding your own research starting point and constructing how to think about evaluating projects.

205/206 This is probably my last thread of the year, and its been a pretty wild one. With over 115 threads and over 78M tweet impressions according to Twitter Analytics, I've written a fair bit this year and I hope it's been useful in setting you up for the year to come.

206/206 Here is to an exciting 2022, no matter what this crazy world may throw at us! :)



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