NFT Alpha Beta 🔮☕

NFT Alpha Beta 🔮☕

13-02-2022

09:09

🌟How I turned 10e into a 70e Portfolio🌟 A general thread on NFT strategies I follow and personal views. 🧵⬇️

1. Volume is more important than Price. Price in itself means nothing. A floor w/o any real volume is as feeble as an elephant on thin ice. It can crash easily. Vol stability is crucial for projects to moon, otherwise it will correct itself quickly when new sellers appear.

In general, greater volume = price stability. A tip is to look real time at new listings vs sales under “activity” on OS instead of “buy now” to get a sense. This would give you some clue around the new listings that are coming in and the remaining supply yet to be minted.

2. Mint WL? I only mint when it's trading at least 180% of mint price with good volume; a ballpark figure accounting for associated gas fees, approvals, and royalties. At this level, you are almost guaranteed a profit (or buying at cheapest), regardless if flipping or holding.

Again, volume is key. A floor price may be sufficiently high to flip but if there is no volume, it will tank quickly, especially since 200 others may be thinking the same, and only 2 people are buying every 10 min! Watch for volume, not floor price!

3. Always sell into volume I almost always sell into volume. The first 24-48hours after any successful project launch will always see the most volume, hype, and price action, and this is the best time to sell, even for the ones I am bullish on and like.

There is no overnight moon. If you like the project and wish to hodl, buy back in after a couple of days/weeks when there is less hype and lower interest. Better still, buy it post reveal for a cheaper price.

4. Resist the fomo train, unless you have a plan How many times have you seen prices going steadily up, and tiers of pricing being cleared and you think, I should buy now if not it will only get more expensive here on out? This is the FOMO train. This is not the time to buy.

Paperhands during this time may buy and list for lower a while later. Don't shame these people; it's better to take a L than lock up liquidity when hype cools further and price tanks more. Don't FOMO into an ATH only to turn it into a hodl later. We've been there. Don't.

5. Paperhand🧻and Proud I almost always sell pre-reveal. Again, this is the time when prices are significantly higher and less spread out. The odds of getting a 1/1 out of a 10k collection for eg. is too low to consistently pay a 20 – 30% premium on the gamble.

If you wish to gamble, sell DURING reveal when there is most volume, else you are either a hodler or left with the bag. Getting 20-30% more value out of every flip > holding out for 1/1 at 0.01% odds. Do this consistently and gain value, instead of gambling with odds this low.

6. Diamondhands💎later. Accumulate when there is no interest and prices are low. These are usually a few weeks after the initial launch + hype, and prices have dipped. To illustrate, I bought a bagful of @kumoxworld below 0.1, and @thelittlesnft below 0.3.

Yes, prices may never go down, but they do so most of the time. That's when you can accumulate again. The worse play is buying into FOMO at a relative high, and when prices tank you find excuses and become a hodler. Remember, Paper 1st, Diamond 2nd.

7. Invest in People🧑‍🤝‍🧑 This cannot be said more. Most projects have no intrinsic value today and are fueled by hype and expectations for a bright future. Any roadmap you see today is 95% similar. @garyvee would also tell you 95% of all projects will fail in the coming months.

Which is why the people makes all the difference, and why any NFT I hodl stems from the team behind it. Ask me about any NFT project I hodl, and I'll tell you about the team behind it. Art, utility, and price aside, I bet on people. That's the only long term play.

8. The Curse of Hindsight How many times have you told yourself “I knew this would be a bluechip” but didnt act on it? You didn't know it would be a bluechip; had you knew you would have bought a bag. You had doubts, stop giving excuses. Move on.

Every time I took a profit, I never look back. Even if it moons later so be it. It could easily have crashed too. Sold a 1/1 pre-reveal? Never wanna find out. Quit thinking about what-ifs. They are irrelevant & unproductive. Move on. Make conviction plays. Stick to your plan.

9. Market Trends NFTs and anything that is worth anything/tradable will often follow the same rules, traits, and have the same behavioural finance behind it. There is no moon overnight. Prices go up, they come back down slightly during consolidation and correction. 📈📉

We can really never tell when the peak or trough is. Which is why a good time to sell is always into volume when it's trending up, and buying back when nobody is looking. Buy stuff nobody hears about, sell when everyone is talking. Buy on Rumour, Sell on News.

10. Portfolio Management Once you have a portfolio, try to hold a good % of eth. This should be at least 30%, such that when eth moons and NFTs get cheaper with some lag time, it's time to buy. When eth tanks, and NFTs moon, take profits. Rinse and repeat.

11. Luck is Key If it seems like everyone but you are winning big, know that it's not because they are better than you. A lot is luck; he/she who first joined the DC and OG, grinding WL for HAPE before it blew up fashionably, or the lucky one who minted a 1/1 in Karafuru.

At the end of the day, luck is important in all of this. All it takes could be just one lucky break and you made bank. More often than not, the person who “made it” just got lucky. That's it. There's no magic formula. Don't belittle yourself. Most of my "success"? Luck.

12. Other strategies Other strategies are advanced and may be more stressful in nature such as trait sniping. Don't do gas wars - high risk low reward. You need finese to win them, plus bots that that you can't win against. Avoid gas wars. Only play to win, or lose big.

13. End thoughts Price is nothing with volume Always sell into volume Resist FOMO Profit is profit; nobody lost money taking profit Go diamond during low interest Avoid gas wars Invest in people Hindsight can be a curse There will be new opp Build connections Be kind WAGMI

If you liked/hated what you read or have any feedback/suggestions, please let me know here or on any of my tweets. Appreciate a like, retweet, and follow!♥️

Typo on #13, it's "Price is nothing WITHOUT volume"



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