When will my publisher recoup ? What’s my game break-even ? How might my wishlist or current month sales impact my long tail ? If I’m going on Epic Game Store what’s my upside ? How much should I ask for gamepass ? Financial modelling time ! (1/11)

I’ve seen lots of calculators but they are either very complex and specific, or too simple and do not account for long-tail and current industry benchmarks. Who is this financial model for ? Small studios wishing to...(2/11)

...quickly project their cash-flows up to 2 years after their release. This can be used as early as publisher negotiation phase and then updated every month as a proxy to anticipate financial problem (typically making sure cash-burn is aligned with revenues sources). (3/11)

The financial model is simple, it’s a basic attenuation model (every month sales decay by a fixed factor), floored to a min value (that decays 5% a month). The model takes into account up to 5 additional events such as discounts (or DLCs), at a different attenuation rate. (4/11)

Attenuation rates & wishlist conversion rates are linked and follow industry benchmarks as researched by Steam and beautiful pple such as @simoncarless. Sources benchmarks are included in the document. Each « event » generates a spike of sales and it’s own long-tail. (5/11)

Obviously all those parameters are meant to be played with, to understand your recoup sensibility to price, platform cut or publisher investment (which, as Yves reminds me, is made of raw funding + external costs + internal publisher costs). (6/11)

You have an overwhelmingly positive title on your hand or some liveOps? You might increase the long-tail floor or increase attenuation factor. You're on EGS ? Change the store cut (7/11)

Any economic model is shit beyond 1 year, but a decay model is imo a reasonable proxy of the way a premium game behaves, especially as a risk management tool. (8/11)

Publishers have similar in-house tools, with custom abacus depending on their segment. If they specialize, they optimise and can wrench more from a game, so my model is a min. They use it to evaluate their risk, negotiate their share, time-horizon or any guaranteed minimum(9/11)

The spreadsheet is locked so use it : FILE/MAKE A COPY. As usual, any RT & feedback is welcome. DM me for tweaks or if you have questions on how to use. Thanks a ton to @simoncarless , @jverbroucht & @Ubikh for their time in reviewing it and their useful remarks. (10/11)

I also have to announce that, sadly, there's only a single "L" in "financial modeling" but hey it's not as if I couldn't easily update it 😬 (11/11)

Writing a thread on twitter should NOT be such a harrowing experience. Typos, broken structure or links, missed comments...lemme out

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