Let me show you how you could have caught this downmove at the top by doing some homework. Posting here few screenshots of daily Bhavcopy analysis I do for my next day preparation. Not sharing the full process as it will require loads of efforts & understanding . But lets start

Below is the screen shot 18/8 Expiry bhavcopy as on 17/8 EOD. Here you will see that every CE is getting unwounded except 39600 on Wednesday. BNF closed at 39460 with a upmove of 220 points and still people are creating one huge short position in 100 points away CE (RED FLAG)

On the PE side the agression of last few days to write Deep ITM pe were missing on 17/8. So somehow the data was preparing us for a pause or downfall. Chances of further upside were going down.

Now see the same day monthly data. Huge CE writing at 39500CE almost to the extent of 40% increase that day. Here it has to be noted that this CE closed 20% up but still CE writer are coming in system.

While on the PE side, again the agression of last few days were missing. Infact we seen a small reduction in 38800 PE.

I am seeing a complete shift in the way OI data is working since last two months. The reason can be fall in option prices and a general belief in retailers that shorting option is easy money. So always look for smallest change in OI structure in an upmove or downmove.

That will give you advance indication of whats coming. If you had followed EOD data properly then all long bets were off at 39400 zone . I dont know what you made but really could have saved a lot

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